How Banks are Single-handedly Destroying the Housing Market – And Themselves!

Posted on March 22, 2009

images.jpgThe crash in the housing market came suddenly, which should have been the first sign that it wasn’t ordinary market forces at play. Almost in unison, homeowners began to default on loans; demand for housing slipped; home-price appreciation reversed course; Lenders began to tighten their purse-strings; homeowner default led to foreclosure; foreclosure led to Lender default; Lender default led to TARP; TARP led to several other bailout plans which led to the Dow hovering where it is today at 13-year lows.

It was reported last week that nationally, home prices declined 15% over the prior year.  In Tampa Bay, our home-territory, the reality was even more grim: Values had fallen 30% over the last 12 months, and 41.9% over the last two years.

Something didn’t sit right with us about these statistics. I receive weekly reports from our Agents that show without exception how every Seller in our book of business has slashed the equity out of their properties in order to attract a Buyer. When a sale closes, the Seller has inevitably sold for an amount equal to or less than what they owe, and they’ve done so by cutting an average of 10% off their initial asking price. Yet according to our analysis, home prices fell over 15% during the fourth quarter of 2008 alone.

It follows that if every Seller we represent has priced their property at rock-bottom in order to sell it and are dropping their prices no more than 10% during the course of the sales process, then someone other than the average seller must be causing a quarterly price decline of 15%

As we prepared to publish our report on “distressed” – or Lender facilitated – sales for January, it occurred to us that it is none other than Banks and Lenders who are driving down home values nationwide. In the same irresponsible way that they drove up home values during boom-times, over-inflating the market and funding the excess that caused the housing crisis, they’re now directly facilitating the largest national home value decline in the history of the United States.

Fueled and motivated by TARP, Lenders have been feverishly writing off bad debt with the end result of dumping tens of thousands of foreclosed homes on the market at prices as low as 20% of market value. Would-be home buyers have deserted “conventional”, market-priced sales for the unbelievably good “sub-market” foreclosure deals being offered by Lenders who – bailout money in hand – no longer need to make decisions that will maximize profits from the sale of foreclosed properties. Lenders are dumping these toxic assets on the market with not incentive to act responsibly and are cleaning up their books at the expense of home values nation-wide.

Distressed sales, which once accounted for only a fraction of the market, grew from 28% of sales in September 2008 to 46% in January 2009. Sale prices for distressed homes hovered at just over 60% of conventional sales prices for the fourth quarter of 2008 until January 2009 when they fell to 57% of conventional sales prices. And so in the last quarter of 2008, Lenders assumed their position as the most powerful force in the US housing market, with a controlling influence on home sales and values. Yet rather learning a lesson from the housing boom and acting in a responsible fashion, Lenders are now selling homes at prices so low that they’re single-handedly destroying home values in America and further diminishing the equity positions of millions of responsible home owners.

What Dumping is to trade, these Lender’s practices are to the housing market. Every dollar in TARP funds that they receive allows them to pour distressed properties onto the market in greater quantities at lower and lower prices, flooding the supply lines with so many properties that they’re forced to take rock-bottom prices. Marketplace demand has absolutely nothing to do with the prices Banks are charging for their distressed homes; their only thought is what price will move their foreclosures in the least amount of time. They don’t care about maximizing profits; they don’t care about market equilibrium; they don’t care about the effect that their sales prices have on the values of the homes around them. Their one goal is what is best for them – forget bourgeois concepts like “the greater good.” Yet the irony is that because of the comparable method of real estate valuation – and Fannie Mae’s mandate that appraisers treat all comparable sales equally and without regard to the “distressed” nature of the sale – the Lender’s disregard for the intrinsic value of their assets is causing a cataclysmic decline in the value of their non-toxic books of business as well! This in turn increases the likelihood that non-toxic assets will themselves turn toxic. It’s almost a law of nature – destructive behavior becoming self-destructive.

And so our housing values continue to fall. Spurred on, not by home-owners, not by investors, not even by speculators or greedy house-flippers, but by the Banks and Lenders who aided and abetted us into this mess to begin with. When the dust settles and the nation looks back over the last few years, Lenders may well be revealed as the destroyers of home values… and the sealers of their own fate.

***

The author, Peter Murphy, is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

A Guaranteed Way to Halt Home Value Declines

Posted on March 14, 2009

fall.jpgThere’s been a lot of talk lately about reforming Mark to Market valuation policies in securities markets. The theory behind the proposal is that Mark to Market reflects market fears and expectations in security valuation and not necessarily the book value or likely performance of the securities. It’s a proposal that seems to be gaining traction on Wall Street and in Washington because business- and policy-makers are clamoring for something to put a floor on stock prices.

As a Real Estate consultant, I propose something similar for real estate valuation. My proposal will put an immediate halt to home-value declines and will likely stop the free-fall in Bank stocks and the devaluation of derivatives and mortgage backed securities that caused all this mess to begin with.

My proposal is that we end the Mark to Market approach to real estate valuation. “Is there such a thing,” you ask? Of course there is – it’s called the Comparable Sales approach. This approach – the only standard of residential real estate valuation approved by the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) – states that residential real estate should be valued almost solely by Comparable Sales, or “comps”. In practice, this means that if your neighbor sold a home that is similar in size, function and location to yours, your home’s market value is roughly the same as your neighbor’s.

The problem with the Comparable Sales approach to real estate valuation is the same problem that so many have to the Mark to Market approach in securities valuation. The Comparable Sales approach in today’s market considers the price of foreclosed homes on par with conventional sales. This – just like securities valuation – reflects market fears, expectations and the out-of-control dumping of foreclosed homes on the market by Lenders, and not necessarily the actual value of the property in question.

This is problematic for a host of reasons. In an up-market, the Comparable Sales approach allows irrational exuberance to bid-up the price of real estate. It claims that your property is increasing in value solely because your neighbor was able to sell his similar home for more than you paid for yours. In a down market, the method forces down values solely because a bank foreclosed on your neighbor and the sold the home for pennies on the dollar. Neither outcome accounts for the intrinsic (or book) value of the home. In fact, the entire theory relies on the premise that the market always acts in a reasonable fashion and run-ups and run-downs in price are because the home is appreciating or depreciating rationally.  If the events of the last 5 years taught us anything, it’s that expectations of rational behavior from the market are themselves irrational.

“What other approach could we take to real estate valuation”, you ask. The Replacement Cost Estimator, is one. This measure of value is commonly used by your insurance company in estimating an appropriate amount of insurance coverage for you to have on your property. Regardless of what you paid for your home, your Insurance Company values your property at what it will cost to replace the home should it burn to the ground – a much truer reflection of the value of your property than what you paid for it, according to them.

Here in Tampa Bay, Replacement Cost is rarely less than $120/sq.ft. So if you purchase a 1,000 sq.ft home, you shouldn’t expect your Replacement Cost estimator to come in much below $120,000. Let’s say you find a 1,000 sq.ft foreclosed home for $50,000. The Comparable Sales (Mark to Market) approach will likely value this bargain home – and all similar homes within a two mile radius – at $50,000. The Replacement Cost approach will estimate value much higher.

Policy makers seem oh-so-eager to make changes to Wall Street that will prevent what has transpired in the markets over the last 6 months from reoccurring. Yet it is what happened on Main Street that started this downward cycle. One way to ensure that nothing like this happens again is to implement a valuation methodology for real estate that can’t be manipulated by extra-market forces. If Mark to Market isn’t right for securities in today’s market, perhaps it’s wrong for real estate too. So while we’re rewriting the rules by which we value securities, let’s take a close look at the way we value real estate. If we change one, shouldn’t we change the other? Real Estate is, after all, the commodity that precipitated the market decline in the first place.

***

The author, Peter Murphy, is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

Foreclosure Sales Eat Up the Tampa Housing Market

Posted on November 14, 2008

foreclosures.jpgTampa, FL. Another sign of weakness in the local housing market: Distressed Sales – sales by homeowners facing foreclosure or by Banks selling off foreclosed inventory – jumped to 35% of all sales for the month of October, from 28% in September. That’s according to the Home Encounter Distressed Sales report for October, released today.

In a month where sales volumes dropped by 6% and sales prices by 5.5% across the region, the findings represent another indicator that the challenges effecting the housing market are far from over.

Home Encounter CEO, Peter Murphy, was not surprised by the findings. “We were surprised when last month’s findings indicated that Distressed sales only represented 28% of the marketplace. Anecdotal evidence suggested that it would be much higher,” commented Murphy. “But with the historically low prices that Banks are selling these Assets for, it’s no wonder that they represent such a large portion of the marketplace.”

According to the Report, Bank Owned homes are selling for an average of 60% of Conventional Sales. This discount makes it almost impossible for Conventional homes to compete for Buyers. “When the foreclosed house next to you is selling for 60% of what your home is selling for, the chance of selling your home – not to mention holding your asking price – is slim” commented Murphy.

This 60% discount represents a historic buying opportunity for owners and investors looking to take advantage of low prices. “The almost 800 buyers who purchased distressed homes in October got the deal of a lifetime”, commented Murphy. But Murphy says you shouldn’t feel left out: with the 17 months of inventory that’s still on the market, according to their Residential Real Estate Report for October, there are still plenty of “deals of a lifetime” to be had.

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

Tampa Bay Home Sales Increase in July, Inventory Levels Drop to 17-Month Low

Posted on August 16, 2008

images.jpgThe number of home sales in July increased by 0.6% from June, according to Home Encounter’s Residential Real Estate Report, released today.  “June is historically the busiest month for home sales in Tampa Bay”, commented Peter Murphy, Home Encounter CEO. “But this year, July’s sales volume topped June’s by just over half a percent, which is a drastic break from the norm.”

“Drastic” is no overstatement – there was a 14% decline in sales volume between June and July 2007. So a 0.6% sales increase – accompanied by a 3.2% drop in inventory – is giving real estate Agents something to smile about. “The continued increase in sales has pushed resale home inventory down to a 17-month low in Tampa Bay”, commented Murphy, “so by some measures, things are looking up.”

By other measures, things aren’t so good. Average sales prices in the Bay Area dropped another 2.4% in July. Add that to declines in prior months, and you’ll see that average home prices are down 6.1% from May and 10.2% from January 2008. Go back even further – to June 2006 – and Tampa Bay prices are down 25% over the last two years. “There’s no doubt that it’s the cheaper homes that are selling,” commented Murphy. “The average unsold listing is 35% more expensive than the average sold listing and has been listed for sale for almost seven months. So if you want to sell your home, price it cheaply.”

But the darker side of this price decline is that lower comparable sales – or “comps” as they’re referred to by Real Estate Professionals – make it more difficult for sellers to justify their asking prices. “Appraisers look at sales prices as a means to establish the value of property,” commented Murphy. “If comparable sales prices drop, appraisals decline, and ultimately so do values.”

Still, July real estate statistics add some welcome relief to a Real Estate market that can’t seem to catch a break. Home Encounter’s projections of the bottom-of-the-market even improved slightly from last month: Their projected bottom-of-the-market average sale price was just over 3% below today’s values and should hit somewhere in the first quarter of 2009.

The folks at Home Encounter can see light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s hope they’re right.

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

Tampa Home Prices Plummet in June

Posted on July 8, 2008

100_20522.JPGHome prices in Tampa Bay plummeted 3.8% during June, falling almost 19% from June 2007 and eradicating the modest home price gains from the three months prior that had some proclaiming the end of the housing market decline. That’s according to Home Encounter’s Residential Real Estate Report for Tampa Bay, released today.

At first glance, the data is misleading: The number of home sales in June increased by 7.5%, consuming just over 2.5% of the total inventory of available homes for sale in Tampa Bay. Although this appears promising, Home Encounter analysis shows that the up-tick in sales was accompanied by an almost 4% decline in sales prices, a 4% increase in the number of days to a sale, a 2% decline in asking prices for homes, and a 1.5% increase in the time a property has been on the market.

It’s good when homes sell, but it’s not good for overall market health when they sell so cheaply,” commented Peter Murphy – Home Encounter CEO. “Home values are determined in part by what buyers are willing to pay. When sale prices fall, the Market is sending a clear message that it thinks homes are worth less than they were in months prior. An increase in the volume of sales at lower prices only reinforces this message.”

What Murphy is referring to is the primary method used by Real Estate Appraisers to determine the value of a residential property, and it’s referred to as the Comparable Sales Method. This Method states that generally speaking, your home is worth no more than what homes in your immediate vicinity are worth, and “worth” is determined by recent sales. So if similar homes in your neighborhood have sold during the last 3-to-6 months for $200,000, your home is worth no more than $200,000 – and possibly less since market values are declining.

The good news is that even with the influx of foreclosures, bank-owned homes and short-sales, there are a limited number of dirt-cheap homes for sale. As the rate of sales increases, it won’t be long before the supply of low priced homes is consumed, in which case buyers will have to pay more if they want to purchase a home.

But as Florida continues to rank at the top of the charts for foreclosures, and as prices continue to fall, it will be some time before we see an end to value-declines. June’s data pushes back Home Encounter’s projection of the bottom of the real estate market to March 2009 with values that are 5.5% below where they are today. “We would love to focus only on the increase in sales volume and use it to say that we’ve hit bottom,” commented Murphy, “but as long as prices continue to fall, “the housing market has not yet started to recover.”

For a free copy of the Home Encounter Residential Real Estate Report for June, go to http://homeencounter.com/learn.php and click on the link to the June 2008 Residential Real Estate Report.

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

Home Sales are Up, but the Market is Still Down

Posted on June 5, 2008

homeencounterlogo.jpgThe number of home-sales in Tampa Bay increased for the second straight month – so did the average sales price of Bay Area homes. But a continual decrease in asking prices is holding back housing market recovery. That’s according to Home Encounter’s Residential Real Estate Report for May, released today.

“There was improvement – or at least stability – in almost every indicator of housing-market-health,” commented Peter Murphy, Home Encounter CEO. “The number of sales went up across the region; sale prices rose; total listings fell; and average days until sale dropped.” All these positive indicators would ordinarily be accompanied by talk of recovery in the housing market, but Murphy isn’t so optimistic.  “Asking prices have continued to drop, dampening prospects of an immediate recovery in the housing market,” commented Murphy.

According to Home Encounter, asking prices are a key bellwether of market strength, since they’re based on factors such as comparable sales, customer demand, loan availability and what a buyer can afford. Falling asking prices are typically in response declining home values, increased competition, extended time on the market and increased negotiation from Buyers. So even though average sales prices may have creped up since last month, the large inventory of unsold homes and heavy Buyer negotiation is having a dampening effect on market recovery.

A Slowing Decline in the Housing Market

The news of May home-sales activity is a mixed bag. Home Encounter forecasts still indicate that the Tampa Bay market will reach its bottom around February 2009 – unchanged from last month. But prices will have to fall a little more before they reach rock bottom – almost 7% more, according to Home Encounter’s Report.

Everyone equates “Bottom” with “Recovery”, but the two concepts are quite different, commented Chase Clark, Home Encounter Partner and director of Investment Services. “Bottom” is the point at which the decline should end. “Recovery” depends on many factors, including inventory levels, consumer confidence, availability of loans and the job market. When it comes to the “Bottom” of the housing decline, we can safely say that the end is in sight. But when “Recovery” will occur – and how long it will take to erase the losses of the last 3 years – is anyone’s guess.

Looking for Relief

Still, May stacks-up well when compared against past months. “Asking Price is a measure of health that almost has to get worse before it gets better,” commented Murphy. “Foreclosures, Short Sales and other real estate bargains will inevitably force the competition to lower their price if they want to sell homes. But once bargain-inventory dries up – and assuming generally positive trends continue – it won’t be long before the Seller can gain some level of control again. That’s the relief that everyone is looking for.”

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

Open Job Offer

Posted on May 30, 2008

images-2.jpgPlease consider this an open-ended offer:

We’re looking for the most intelligent, highest skilled real estate practitioners that we can find. We’re looking for exceptional ability and impeccable character because we believe that it takes extremely smart people to make money in real estate in this market.

We don’t care about a hundred years of experience or 30 meaningless FAR designations. We want raw intelligence, unbridled motivation, and extreme personal discipline. We want the best, and here’s why: We want to work with them.

Our founders came out of a high-performance management consulting environment, envisioning that we could find real estate Agents who were like us – exceptional at what we do and driven to succeed. Our rude awakening was that there was no such Brokerage in Tampa Bay. So we created our own. Its name is Home Encounter.

We make no apologies for our ambition: we intend to be known as the best Real Estate Consultancy with the brightest Real Estate Agents in Tampa Bay. Our recruitment strategy is simple: find the most intelligent and highest skilled real estate practitioners in Tampa Bay and introduce them to our Firm. Once they experience our level of Real Estate Consulting, they’ll never go back.

We don’t know you, so we have no idea if you’re the exceptional talent that we’re looking for. But we firmly believe that “like attracts like” and that if what we’ve said above describes you, you’ll contact us right away to schedule a meeting.

We’re offering you the chance to be a part of a high-performance real estate culture, the likes of which you’ve never seen. No more mediocre teams; no more passionless colleagues; no more jaded mentors.  Just intelligence, skill and motivation. If this type of Brokerage appeals to you, you can reach us at 813.425.2566. Ask to speak to any of our Partners.

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

Wanted: Tampa Real Estate Investors

Posted on April 11, 2008

homeencouningfinalogo.jpgOur clients have requested one for a long time - a REAL, hardcore, fact-based-and-action-driven, real estate investor club.

All of us who are active investors understand the need for this type of institution. Most investor groups leave a lot to be desired. The instruction is weak, the “deals” are anything but, and there always seems to be a whole lot more talk than action.

A Whole New Type of Real Estate Club

Introducing something decidedly different - a whole new type of real estate club. Where real investors meet - not to just talk, but to learn and do. Introducing the Home Encounter Advanced Investor Academy of Tampa Bay.

The Advanced Investor Academy of Tampa Bay offers instruction in advanced real estate investment topics. Speakers are experienced, degreed and licenced real estate professionals; Attendees are active investors who are buying and selling real estate in today’s market using today’s strategies; and Coaches are full time investors - not “has-been’s”.

The opening session of the Advanced Investor Academy of Tampa Bay took place on April 7th at Home Encounter’s Ybor City offices. The topic was Making Money in Bank Owned Real Estate. May’s session is on Taxation, Insurance and Corporate Entities and will take place on the first Monday of the month at 6:30pm.

Real Estate Investors Wanted

This is an “open call,” of sorts, to anyone who meets the following criteria: Active Real Estate Investors; Future Investors who want to learn more about the business of real estate investing before they get involved; People who are ready to invest, but are seeking a structured coaching/collaborative environment in which to invest.

If you fall into one of these categories, then please RSVP then join us at our next Class: May 5th at 6:30pm. We look forward to seeing you there!

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

Demand Is Strong for Low Priced Homes

Posted on April 4, 2008

images.jpgPrice Your Home 29% Below Average if you Want it to Sell.
Buyer’s want low priced homes. That’s one conclusion of Home Encounter’s March Residential Real Estate Report, the results of which were released today.

“March saw a 30% increase in home sales in Tampa Bay combined with an almost 2% decrease in average sales prices,” commented Peter Murphy, Home Encounter CEO. “That’s a mixed signal for the strength of the housing market: It shows strong demand for cheap homes.”

Just how cheap? The homes that sold in March were just over 29% cheaper than the average asking price of homes on the market. “That’s a huge difference,” commented Murphy. “Sellers are asking $182/sq.ft for their homes, on average. But the average Buyer is only paying $129 per square foot.” The moral of the story here: If your home is priced 29% below average, it will sell.”

Mixed Signals for the Housing Market.
The fact that home sales are up is good news for the local housing market, but it doesn’t represent any kind of recovery, according to Home Encounter. “Increasing sales only represents a recovery when sale prices are also flat or increasing. As overall sales prices continue to decline, what we have is a clear indication that there’s pent up demand for low priced homes,” commented Murphy.

“If we expect the volume of sales to continue to rise, either average list prices will have to fall to the prices that Buyers are willing to pay or the demand for average priced homes will have to rise.” But this gap is 29% at present, meaning either Buyers have to decide that homes are worth 29% more than they’re currently paying or Sellers will have to lower their asking prices by this amount. According to Home Encounter, neither outcome is very likely. “Sellers can’t go much lower because they’re already so heavily leveraged in their homes and Buyers won’t pay much more while consumer confidence is so low and concerns about ongoing decline in the real estate market continue,” according to the company.

Who Will Give First – Buyers or Sellers.
Odds are, Buyers will give first, simply because most Sellers simply won’t sell for less than what they owe. “We’ll eventually see a rise in the price that Buyers are willing to pay for a house”, commented Murphy. “The low prices they’re paying right now are fueled by the abundance of Bank Owned homes, foreclosures and short sales on the market, all of which are priced for far below what these homes are actually worth because of the distressed nature of the sale.” This low priced inventory will have to dry up before Buyers are willing to pay more for their homes, and it’s not expected to dry up until February 2009, according to Home Encounter projections. But once it does, Buyers will start paying more.

In the meantime, expect Home sales to rise. The 30% increase in sales this month shows that demand is strong for low priced homes. But don’t start predicting recovery until prices start increasing along with sales. “Only when both of these factors are present will both Buyers and Sellers have cause to celebrate”, commented Murphy.

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

New Products for a New Market

Posted on March 31, 2008

change.jpgDear Customers,

The Real Estate industry is going through some major changes right now. Traditional ways to brokering real estate are fine when times were good, but your needs have changed and you’ve made that abundantly clear to us. You’ve told us that you need flexible real estate agents, not agents who are constrained by conventional methods of selling and marketing; You’ve asked for innovative marketing techniques that transcend MLS; You’ve challenged us to implement competitive pricing structures that take into account your reduced profit margins; You’ve asked us to un-bundle our services and to sell you custom-made real estate solutions.

We’ve been listening, and over the last few months we’ve been testing products and services that will make your life a whole lot easier. Here are just a few of them:  

Fee-For-Service Representation.

Also called Flat Fee or A-La-Carte Services. Many of you are in positions where you cannot afford to pay a professional to market and sell your property. Many of you are also well educated, talented consumers who can do a lot of what we do all by yourself. We recognize these facts and have unbundled our services so you can pick and choose the products that are right for you. Now you can list on MLS and Realtor.com with a Showcase listing for an affordable up-front fee; or you can purchase a Home Encounter for-sale sign for your property; or we can list your property on 25 real estate web sites…. In fact, all our services - right down to contract negotiation - have been unbundled and are now being offered to you for up-front fees charged to your major credit card. No more 6% take-it-or-leave it restrictions here. You want flexibility, you’ve got flexibility. You can now choose between traditional full-service representation or fee-for-service seller representation. Contact info@homeencounter.com for more information

Renter Placement Services.

Home Encounter Consultants love Renters and we gladly work with renters to help them find a home to rent. We have established relationships with hundreds of Landlords and we’re ready to share our inventory of rental homes with you. Landlords pay us to find them qualified Renters like you, so don’t worry about paying us. Just take advantage of our expertise in property-finding, negotiation, and renter representation and we guarantee that your rental experience will be a whole lot easier. Contact rentals@homeencounter.com for more information.

Tenant Finder.

Landlords, hundreds of Renters contact us every week looking for a home. So tell us all about your vacant property. When we find you a qualified Renter, you pay us half-a-month’s rent. No catches, no commitments - It’s that easy. Contact rentals@homeencounter to experience our huge Renter network today.

The Apartment Showcase.

Got vacancies that need to be filled? Want exclusive advertising in MLS, Realtor.com, Google, Yahoo Real Estate, and over 23 other huge websites? Then you need the Apartment Showcase. For only $99/month, you can advertise your vacancies in the most robust network of real estate sites in the world. Big, glossy, picture-filled ads show your apartment’s finest side while you’re reaching tens of thousands of qualified Renters at a fraction of the cost that you’re currently paying for the Flyer, newspaper classifieds, or other media. Contact rentals@homeencounter.com more information.

www.TheTenantList.com.

TheTenantList.com is a first-of-it’s kind free “bulletin board” for landlords to share information on Tenants. Fully in compliance with Landlord-Tenant laws and with the Fair Credit Reporting Act, TheTenantList.com is a long-overdue method of telling the whole-truth about Renters. It’s free, it’s easy to use, and it’s growing every day. Contact info@thetenantlist.com for more information.

This phase of product innovation is not a destination for us - it’s a journey. Home Encounter is “Real Estate Done Right,” and Real Estate, when “done right”, is constantly adapting to the needs of the marketplace. We’re always watching for signs that your needs are changing, but we also gladly welcome your comments and suggestions on how we can meet your needs even better. Feel free to write us any time on this Blog or at info@homeencounter.com.

Thank you for being our customers. Here’s to many more years of prosperity in Real Estate!

Peter Murphy is Co-Founder and Head Broker at Home Encounter, a Tampa-based real estate Consultancy with specialties in Residential & Rental Properties, Investment Real Estate, Property Management and Land & Commercial Properties. Murphy’s analysis of the Tampa Bay housing market is featured extensively in local media and in trade publications, including the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Tribune, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Lakeland Ledger, and the Orlando Sentinel. He has appeared on ABC Action News and Bay News 9 for his reporting on significant local developments in the real estate market. He is a regular contributor to Fox’s 970 WFLA news broadcasts and is a guest panelist on Fox 13s “Your Turn”, where he consults on local and national real estate market issues. Murphy has a B.S. in Economics from the University of South Florida and an MBA with an emphasis in Finance, Economics and Marketing from the University of South Florida School of Business. He resides in Tampa with his wife and child.

 

Phone: 813.425.2566 Email: murphyp@homeencounter.com 2708 N. 22nd St., Tampa, FL. 33605

 


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Home Encounter Real Estate Consultants and Real Estate Agents provide Real Estate services in Tampa Bay including the buying and selling of commercial and residential real estate in Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Hernando and Polk Counties. Our Real Estate Consultants and Real Estate Agents are proficient in Real Estate in Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater; Real Estate in South Tampa, Hyde Park and Palma Ceia; Real Estate in Ybor City, Seminole Heights, East Tampa and West Tampa; Real Estate in Temple Terrace, Brandon, Plant City and Lakeland; Real Estate in Dover, Valrico, Riverview and Gibsonton; Real Estate in Apollo Beach, Lutz, Wesley Chapel and Land O Lakes; Real Estate in Zephyrhills, Dade City and Odessa; Real estate in Pinellas Park, Safety Harbor, Palm Harbor and Oldsmar; and Real Estate in New Port Richey, Port Richey, Tarpon Springs and Hudson. Our Real Estate Consultants and Real Estate Agents specialize in the purchase and sale of Residential Real Estate, Investment Properties (including duplex, triplex, quad, large multi-family properties, apartment communities and other forms of investment real estate), Commercial Properties (including office condos, warehouse space and office space), commercial construction, residential construction and vacant land. Our Restoration, Preservation and Rehabilitation division specializes in Historic Homes and Historic Buildings in Ybor City, Seminole Heights, East Tampa and West Tampa.